Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,243$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(398 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,175.3}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,175.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $99$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(12.4 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102.1}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(102.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $133$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $32,809$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(2.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,293.3}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 56.7)}}\) (asimptote \(35,293.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,925$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(345 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,967.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 42.0)}}\) (asimptote \(3,967.1\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,913$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,332$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(2.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,010.9}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 31.2)}}\) (asimptote \(8,010.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $235$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(48.5 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{227.6}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 28.8)}}\) (asimptote \(227.6\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $370$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,537$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(718 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,657.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(6,657.7\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $306$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(35.1 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{307.9}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(307.9\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,431$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $11,428$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(1.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,304.9}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(11,304.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $561$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(102 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{550.3}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(550.3\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $905$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,803$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(513 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.1}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.1\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(3.33 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.2}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 22.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10.2\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $56,511$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(7.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55,145.5}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(55,145.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,212$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,941.8}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(8,941.8\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,176$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $255,544$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(1.95 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{263,726.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 49.8)}}\) (asimptote \(263,726.3\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $36,475$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(3.74 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,492.5}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 40.9)}}\) (asimptote \(35,492.5\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $217,927$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $228,658$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(3.83 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{222,874.6}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.6)}}\) (asimptote \(222,874.6\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $32,616$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(4.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,551.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(31,551.6\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $59,322$ on 2020-05-22
